A few people have pointed out that the much-vaunted Apple Vision Pro—meant to be the savior of AR/VR and usher in the paradigm-shifting cyberpunk age—has in fact unexpectedly, kind of, sort of, regrettably…flopped. Okay, so there’s actually a debate on that fine point. Rumors claimed the device has sold 200,000 units, which is supposedly impressive. However, others claim most of those were presales, and since release things have stalled. In fact, nearly half of those early buyers now reportedly plan to return the headset, citing various problems:
Firstly, on "what are LLMs for?", ignore silly toys to generate walls of text or images that almost seem useful. The long-term-viable purpose of LLMs, as far as I can see, are as faster sorting mechanisms. This is sort of similar to some of the math that underlies modern computing and how that impacted on the world.
What's a faster sort useful for? Particularly one that can sort *images* as well as text?
Broadly, machine vision: manufacturing, maneuvering through the world, and identifying things faster than a human can at scale. In other words, they're good for looking at lots of things or a very large area in a very short time. They don't seem to trade off accuracy relative to an average (note: not exceptional) human given appropriate training.
To leap to the other newsletter: this is obviously useful in the military currently, where an occasional misfire isn't a big deal most of the time (shit happens in wartime). More importantly, in a military context there is a limited and well known set of potential objects of interest, and broad operating freedom. They won't be driving cars for regular humans in regular towns without killing lots of people.
This then brings me to my second point - I don't understand why apple haven't shipped all their excess vision pro stock via the DoD to Ukraine. They could charge even more egregiously than they charge consumers, and get the techbro/nafodork brand hype from being behind endless FPV hits on tiktok and x.com.
After reading, I was reminded of the old F Scott Fitzgerald quote which is rarely presented in its fullness:
"Let me tell you about the very rich. They are different from you and me. They possess and enjoy early, and it does something to them, makes them soft where we are hard, and cynical where we are trustful, in a way that, unless you were born rich, it is very difficult to understand. They think, deep in their hearts, that they are better than we are because we had to discover the compensations and refuges of life for ourselves. Even when they enter deep into our world or sink below us, they still think that they are better than we are. They are different."
Typically rendered as FSF: "The rich are different than you and me" Hemingway: "Yes they have more money."
Events are clearly proving Fitzgerald had the correct angle.
Got about 25% through that one before you talked yourself up your own asshole, AFAICT. Still calibrating this aspect, I guess.
Frankly, reality is right outside my window and has a much higher pixel count than whatever the brand name VR sensation du jour can deliver. And more realistic graphics. And a better story line. Plus, it's Spring in North America. So... By by!
I agree with a lot of the main points you are making here about infatuation with tech toys. I think you are right about some of the new technology - but not all.
I want to revisit your comments on Krugman's Law, that the Internet will end up being about as impactful as the fax. That misses something critical going on - and you are part of it.
I would not be sitting here reading your essay and responding if it were not for the Internet. I wouldn't have any way of knowing you existed.
The Internet has completely revolutionized how and where I get reliable news and information. I realized recently that there is now an increasingly inter-connected way to get news that completely bypasses the mainstream outlets. I've noticed that the favorite people I follow tend to know about each other, read and comment on each other. It's not just a few voices crying in the wilderness anymore, it is a whole alternate news ecosystem.
The Internet has greatly strengthened the effect of the Legacy Media aka MSM in some ways - and in other ways it has broken its stranglehold because there are now viable options other than MSM, and the power of that really seems to be hitting critical mass around now. I don't think you should underestimate just how important this is.
That Max Read seems like a bit !of an aloof faggot, frankly. He can't think of even one real-world everyday practical use that LLM chatbots have? Because, like, um, why would you even *ask* a computer anything, lol, how crazy to even care, lol.
How about because web searchers are effectively useless nowadays... Or not having to read through hundreds of pages of poor technical documentation and annoying websites with no actual content, generated to max their AdWords ranking, just to try and find out what the heck some software library referenced in some other library does. To provide organisations a way of interactively searching their own knowledgebase of data and able to give them answers to questions about it? It may not always give perfect answers, but it's so incredibly useful for narrowing down what you have to find in the official source.
There was a time, in the dusty past, when I never knew when someone ate a peach or a muffin. Now,
thanks to FB and similar, I can follow and catalog these thrilling, life changing events. A couple of my grandparents were born pre-automobile. (imagine the unrelenting stink of horseshit). My maternal gramps had the dubious luck to shoot at Germans, in France, in WW1. Unlucky enough to lose a son in WW2.
One of my radical profs (SDS) at school (50+ years ago) marveled at the ability of capitalism to reinvent itself. He also advised that if you didn't understand historical events, look to see who stood to profit from it. I had my annual Medicare physical yesterday. I asked my GP if computers had improved his work life or made it worse. He confided immediately that computers had made his life worse. Much worse. He also reported that he didn't read newspapers or follow the news. At all. That seemed like a very good idea. I spoke to a friend for over three hours in a coffeeshop today. No computers. That almost never happens. I know, I know....I'm rambling. FJB.
"This digi-deracination is the perfect postmodern tool to rewrite the biological sacred code that’s been the enigma ne plus ultra of last resort for the executive class."
Too much! If it's the ne plus ultra (no more beyond) isn't it by definition the last resort? Seems like unnecessary duplication and it hinders comprehension(at least for me). I love your prose but you're on a prolix sugar rush in this article :-)
The battle, or rather contest between the "masked" vs. "unmasked"; as plandemic showed us that the gullible and obedient ones ("MASKED" - even today) will inevitably fall into the traps of the "trans-human progress", even though, their long ignored, and forgotten, metaphysical calling screams; "Avoid It", they will fall a victims of the trend.
The trends have ebb and flows, though, and as you eloquently put it, - "simple needs in life" prevails in all ages
How can people buy these? Everyone has far too much debt. Any increase in "disposable income" (despite its questionable definition) is going to be used to repay debt (faster), or take on more debt which is probably not going to be used to buy a $3500 trinket.
Great article, but I disagree with a big point: VR fails because of a lack of content. Currently it's like an X-box with 3 games; of course most people get bored with it. VR computer games alone will suck in massive numbers of willing hosts for the vampiric coterie of techno-priests. There are already game companies specializing in VR games, e.g. Skydance Interactive.
Porn will also pull in massive numbers of people, not just for masturbation assistance but as girlfriend simulators. Women already make 6 figures a month on OnlyFans as GF simulators, imagine what VR will do with all those simps begging for simulated intimacy. It wouldn't even take VR, just AI creating bespoke OF content en masse.
Your central idea will likely be advanced, however. None of the above would be free, on the contrary I'd be shocked if it didn't require monthly subscriptions, in-game stores, etc. etc. People will get poorer, technocrats will get richer. Besides a greater rift between the Haves and Have-Nots, there will be an even wider gulf between the Cares and us Care-Nots.
This report was back in February and already said early adopters are returning.
I'm an owner of 3 VP/AR devices from last year and they are nothing more than expensive paperweights. Even other users just use them to watch movies but after one hour your eyes will burn out. More Minus than Postives.
I could see that coming a mile away.
That’s kinda what I thought. You just verbalized it much better than I could.
Two thoughts -
Firstly, on "what are LLMs for?", ignore silly toys to generate walls of text or images that almost seem useful. The long-term-viable purpose of LLMs, as far as I can see, are as faster sorting mechanisms. This is sort of similar to some of the math that underlies modern computing and how that impacted on the world.
What's a faster sort useful for? Particularly one that can sort *images* as well as text?
Broadly, machine vision: manufacturing, maneuvering through the world, and identifying things faster than a human can at scale. In other words, they're good for looking at lots of things or a very large area in a very short time. They don't seem to trade off accuracy relative to an average (note: not exceptional) human given appropriate training.
To leap to the other newsletter: this is obviously useful in the military currently, where an occasional misfire isn't a big deal most of the time (shit happens in wartime). More importantly, in a military context there is a limited and well known set of potential objects of interest, and broad operating freedom. They won't be driving cars for regular humans in regular towns without killing lots of people.
This then brings me to my second point - I don't understand why apple haven't shipped all their excess vision pro stock via the DoD to Ukraine. They could charge even more egregiously than they charge consumers, and get the techbro/nafodork brand hype from being behind endless FPV hits on tiktok and x.com.
After reading, I was reminded of the old F Scott Fitzgerald quote which is rarely presented in its fullness:
"Let me tell you about the very rich. They are different from you and me. They possess and enjoy early, and it does something to them, makes them soft where we are hard, and cynical where we are trustful, in a way that, unless you were born rich, it is very difficult to understand. They think, deep in their hearts, that they are better than we are because we had to discover the compensations and refuges of life for ourselves. Even when they enter deep into our world or sink below us, they still think that they are better than we are. They are different."
Typically rendered as FSF: "The rich are different than you and me" Hemingway: "Yes they have more money."
Events are clearly proving Fitzgerald had the correct angle.
Got about 25% through that one before you talked yourself up your own asshole, AFAICT. Still calibrating this aspect, I guess.
Frankly, reality is right outside my window and has a much higher pixel count than whatever the brand name VR sensation du jour can deliver. And more realistic graphics. And a better story line. Plus, it's Spring in North America. So... By by!
I agree with a lot of the main points you are making here about infatuation with tech toys. I think you are right about some of the new technology - but not all.
I want to revisit your comments on Krugman's Law, that the Internet will end up being about as impactful as the fax. That misses something critical going on - and you are part of it.
I would not be sitting here reading your essay and responding if it were not for the Internet. I wouldn't have any way of knowing you existed.
The Internet has completely revolutionized how and where I get reliable news and information. I realized recently that there is now an increasingly inter-connected way to get news that completely bypasses the mainstream outlets. I've noticed that the favorite people I follow tend to know about each other, read and comment on each other. It's not just a few voices crying in the wilderness anymore, it is a whole alternate news ecosystem.
The Internet has greatly strengthened the effect of the Legacy Media aka MSM in some ways - and in other ways it has broken its stranglehold because there are now viable options other than MSM, and the power of that really seems to be hitting critical mass around now. I don't think you should underestimate just how important this is.
That Max Read seems like a bit !of an aloof faggot, frankly. He can't think of even one real-world everyday practical use that LLM chatbots have? Because, like, um, why would you even *ask* a computer anything, lol, how crazy to even care, lol.
How about because web searchers are effectively useless nowadays... Or not having to read through hundreds of pages of poor technical documentation and annoying websites with no actual content, generated to max their AdWords ranking, just to try and find out what the heck some software library referenced in some other library does. To provide organisations a way of interactively searching their own knowledgebase of data and able to give them answers to questions about it? It may not always give perfect answers, but it's so incredibly useful for narrowing down what you have to find in the official source.
There was a time, in the dusty past, when I never knew when someone ate a peach or a muffin. Now,
thanks to FB and similar, I can follow and catalog these thrilling, life changing events. A couple of my grandparents were born pre-automobile. (imagine the unrelenting stink of horseshit). My maternal gramps had the dubious luck to shoot at Germans, in France, in WW1. Unlucky enough to lose a son in WW2.
One of my radical profs (SDS) at school (50+ years ago) marveled at the ability of capitalism to reinvent itself. He also advised that if you didn't understand historical events, look to see who stood to profit from it. I had my annual Medicare physical yesterday. I asked my GP if computers had improved his work life or made it worse. He confided immediately that computers had made his life worse. Much worse. He also reported that he didn't read newspapers or follow the news. At all. That seemed like a very good idea. I spoke to a friend for over three hours in a coffeeshop today. No computers. That almost never happens. I know, I know....I'm rambling. FJB.
"This digi-deracination is the perfect postmodern tool to rewrite the biological sacred code that’s been the enigma ne plus ultra of last resort for the executive class."
Too much! If it's the ne plus ultra (no more beyond) isn't it by definition the last resort? Seems like unnecessary duplication and it hinders comprehension(at least for me). I love your prose but you're on a prolix sugar rush in this article :-)
The battle, or rather contest between the "masked" vs. "unmasked"; as plandemic showed us that the gullible and obedient ones ("MASKED" - even today) will inevitably fall into the traps of the "trans-human progress", even though, their long ignored, and forgotten, metaphysical calling screams; "Avoid It", they will fall a victims of the trend.
The trends have ebb and flows, though, and as you eloquently put it, - "simple needs in life" prevails in all ages
Thanks of the mind-bending use of language!
How can people buy these? Everyone has far too much debt. Any increase in "disposable income" (despite its questionable definition) is going to be used to repay debt (faster), or take on more debt which is probably not going to be used to buy a $3500 trinket.
Great article, but I disagree with a big point: VR fails because of a lack of content. Currently it's like an X-box with 3 games; of course most people get bored with it. VR computer games alone will suck in massive numbers of willing hosts for the vampiric coterie of techno-priests. There are already game companies specializing in VR games, e.g. Skydance Interactive.
Porn will also pull in massive numbers of people, not just for masturbation assistance but as girlfriend simulators. Women already make 6 figures a month on OnlyFans as GF simulators, imagine what VR will do with all those simps begging for simulated intimacy. It wouldn't even take VR, just AI creating bespoke OF content en masse.
Your central idea will likely be advanced, however. None of the above would be free, on the contrary I'd be shocked if it didn't require monthly subscriptions, in-game stores, etc. etc. People will get poorer, technocrats will get richer. Besides a greater rift between the Haves and Have-Nots, there will be an even wider gulf between the Cares and us Care-Nots.
This report was back in February and already said early adopters are returning.
I'm an owner of 3 VP/AR devices from last year and they are nothing more than expensive paperweights. Even other users just use them to watch movies but after one hour your eyes will burn out. More Minus than Postives.
https://www.theverge.com/2024/2/14/24072792/apple-vision-pro-early-adopters-returns
This says is all (and explains why I have none of this in my house).
https://www.geekculture.com/joyoftech/joyarchives/2340.html
We literally live in different worlds from each other now. Little glass bubbles of our own design.
https://argomend.substack.com/p/the-world-of-glass
Another great article and I swear John Michael Greer must be your uncle or some relation,I mean that as a very high honor!
Have you read "retrotopia" by chance?